That’s not what will happen, according to modeling done by the nonpartisan climate policy think tank Energy Innovation. Revoking California’s waiver will cost consumers up to $160 billion through 2050, increase greenhouse gas emissions by millions of tons per year, and make drivers buy more than 2 billion additional barrels of petroleum a year, Energy Innovation concluded. Trump’s real reason for trying to revoke this waiver is to increase oil sales, said California Governor Gavin Newsom at the press conference. “This is about the oil industry … The oil industry has wanted to get rid of this waiver for years and years,” he said. It’s unclear what legal arguments the Trump administration will marshal to challenge the state’s right to set more stringent tailpipe emission rules under the Clean Air Act. Another nonpartisan think tank, the Institute for Policy Integrity, published a lengthy analysis of the potential legal arguments last year, concluding that the Trump Administration would be venturing into dangerous territory. “This attempt to revoke California’s authority has no legal basis, and it is an affront to the well-established rights of California and more than a dozen other states,” said Richard Revesz, director of the Institute for Policy Integrity, in a statement Tuesday. “The Trump administration seems to be dead-set on taking on this fight regardless of the law or the harm that legal uncertainty will cause automakers.” So far, California’s attorney general, Xavier Becerra, has maintained a near-perfect batting average as he has swatted back Trump’s attempts to dismantle environmental protections. As he gestured toward Becerra, Newsom said, “The good news is that we’ve got a great legal mind here, and a legal team, and we are winning…. We are winning because we have the law, science, and facts on our side.”
This story was originally published by Grist with the headline It’s California vs. Trump in ‘the fight of a lifetime’ over emissions standards on Sep 18, 2019.